Climate change

Two articles recently posted on the AlertNet Climate Conversations blog have highlighted a new framework for debating the issue of climate change. That it is a critically important issue is accepted, yet argument is now focused on the degree to which climate change is not only designated a key driver of conflict, but to what extent climate change and its impact should be defined through a security lens at all. Katie Harris of the Overseas Development Institute suggests that while the security narrative of climate change may have caught the attention of the political and security classes, it has the dangerous potential to undermine both the theoretical understanding of the complex factors underlying conflict, and any practical attempts to promote cooperation over resources in conflict-sensitive regions such as the Levant.

Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell from the Center for Climate and Security broadly agree with Harris’ call for a nuanced approach to climate change and conflict, but take issue with the concept of a ‘climate-security narrative’ that interferes with specific cases of conflict-analysis. Rather than overwhelming this analysis, Femia and Werrell defend not only the sophistication of recent research into the relationship between climate change and conflict, but also its emphasis on the role of climate change as one conflict variable among many.

The role of climate change in exacerbating conflict situations has been confirmed by various recent studies, as reported by Theresa Polk at New Security Beat. Studies include research into the effects of the short-term weather systems El Niño and La Niña, which have shown to increase the risk of conflict in troubled areas such as Somalia. The first conclusion to draw from these studies is that climate change acts as a threat -multiplier in places that are already affected by issues such as poor governance or ethnic division; conversely, countries and regions that do have effective conflict-prevention mechanisms are generally able to withstand the extra stresses caused by climate change. The second conclusion is that there is no one-size-fits-all policy that can be applied to different communities coping with climate change and conflict risk, thereby showing the need for further context-specific research.

Article Source: New Security Beat

Image Source: CMagdalin