Conflict

Three connected conflicts - Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan

Paul Rogers | Oxford Research Group | February 2010

Issue:Global militarisation

Tagss:Afghanistan, Conflict, Iraq, Pakistan

At the beginning of February, ISAF sources announced that a major military offensive was about to be mounted in Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan. This was Operation Moshtarak (“together”), involving 15,000 US, British and Afghan National Army troops, and would concentrate on clearing Taliban and other paramilitary groups from two areas, one of them centred on the town of Marja. The publicity given to the operation appeared designed partly to encourage civilians to evacuate areas under Taliban influence, but would also serve to highlight the capabilities of coalition forces at a time when support for the war in the United States and Britain was fragile.

Given the size of the operation, it is likely that it will provide a major focus for western media attention for some weeks, but to get a full measure of its significance requires seeing it in the wider context of the conflicts in Iraq and Pakistan, and of the Status of the al-Qaida Movement. There have, in particular, been significant developments in both Iraq and Pakistan, with each likely to have an impact on what is now happening in Afghanistan.

Photo courtesy of Helmandblog.

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Al-Qaida: the Yemen factor

Paul Rogers | open Democracy | January 2010

Issue:Global militarisation

Tagss:Conflict, Yemen

Expert: Most of the focus of the United States war on al-Qaida since 9/11 has been on Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq; relatively little attention has been given to the two states on either side of the Gulf of Aden - Yemen and Somalia. Any surplus resources away from the middle east and southwest Asia have tended to be devoted to Algeria and Mali as potential sites for al-Qaida activity.

Yet, Paul Rogers points out that with Umar Farouk Abdulmuttalab's attempt on 25 December 2009 to destroy a Northwest Airlines flight as it approached Detroit and his connections with Yemen, al-Qaida may simultaneously be in decline in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but growing in the Gulf of Aden.

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