Thinking strategically about the future climate

The publication of the Strategic Defence and Security Review and the Coalition's first National Security Strategy provided ample opportunity for the government to deliberate on the strategic implications of climate change for the UK.  Yet while claims that we continue to live in a post-Cold War 'age of uncertainty' lay at the heart of both documents, on  closer reading there is very little to suggest that uncertainty about climate change was a concern for those who conducted the review. Despite a significant amount of intellectual debate, the wording of these documents remains remarkably close to that of the UK's first National Security Strategy, published over two years ago.

Whilst this lack of attention to climate change is unacceptable, it is - to some extent - understandable given the more 'visible' threats of terrorism, cyber-attacks and the ongoing war in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, the marginalisation of environmental factors stands in stark contrast to the tone of a speech delivered by William Hague just prior to the publication of the SDSR. The Foreign Secretary stated that 'climate change is among the biggest foreign policy challenges we face over the next century as it underpins our security and prosperity'.

Hard Times for Soft Power

The SDSR was a missed opportunity to review the UK's place in the world. A key theme to emerge from the fallout surrounding the Review is that much greater emphasis is to be placed on strategic thinking in the UK over the coming years.  This was encapsulated in the Public Administration Committee's recent warning that 'a lack of strategic thinking at the heart of government threatens the UK's national interests' and raises 'serious concerns' about Whitehall's capacity to provide the strategic analysis and assessment needed to support the Foreign Secretary's mission of extending the UK's 'global reach and influence'.

We can hence expect to see the government addressing how, as a country, we can improve strategic thinking. This will most likely encourage a rethinking of how we educate our leaders and the wider policy community, and of the types of structures and institutions that will be required to support such efforts. As part of this education, due consideration will need to be given to the many different dimensions of strategy that will be pertinent in the coming century, and the climate change dimension cannot be divorced from this process.

While there is still a need for highly granulated forms of climate change knowledge, what we do know is that the process will have implications for the way security is managed in many parts of the world where the UK has significant economic and strategic interests. We must therefore reflect on what any detrimental developments in these areas will mean for the way in which the UK secures its interests in the twenty-first century. We have already seen the devastating impact of the global economic meltdown on the UK and its ability to manage its debt, not to mention the repercussions throughout the rest of the EU. The defence sector has been adversely affected, as has the UK's ability to project 'soft power' through diplomatic missions, development programmes and aid. The 2006 Stern Review showed how economic crises on a similar, if not larger, scale are not hard to envisage as the world is forced to come to terms with new environmental conditions.

Read the full article at RUSI

Image source: U.S. Geological Survey