Security is not simply the absence of conflict

I wrote a blog a few weeks ago on climate and security, following the discussion at the UN Security Council sponsored by the German Presidency.  Last Friday I took part in a related workshop and thought I would return to theme briefly with one comment and one message.

Comment - At the event, the AU representative raised a legitimate question - why, when the AU sees southern Africa as a model of peace on the continent, do consultants supported by developed countries focus on the threat of climate induced instability and insecurity? Are we simply using the climate issue as a stick to beat the region again because we have a different view of governance and a more pessimistic take on the region's political direction?

 No.  I underlined the many challenges the region was already tackling - from building sustainable growth into their economies, through creating jobs to improving health and education services. And on top of that, governments are already managing elements of climate stress today, both within countries and increasingly through co-operation at the regional level.

What the scientific modelling makes clear is that if global temerepature continues to rise unabated, it will place significant additional stress on ALL economies, but that the emerging economies on this continent will be among the first to take real strain.  Unchecked climate change will make the poorest even more vulnerable, with related food and water stress and climate migration.   It will raise tension levels over access to diminishing resources, particularly water.

Climate change is therefore a threat mutliplier, and governments must be alive to the potential it has to disrupt sustainable growth and stability and exacerbate tensions within and between countries.  The Hadley Centre brought out an interactive 4-degree map to demonstrate where the threats come from - I commend this to people who wonder what I am writing about.

Now the message - the story around climate change can be relentlessly pessimistic, so I ended the workshop on two positive notes.  First is that there are strong examples of improving regional co-operation, for example on regional water management.  And second  that there is a way to avoid the more extreme climate security threats - a legally binding international framework for reducing global emissions and keeping average temperature rise under 2 degrees.

So rather than dismiss the climate security argument, I encourage Africa to be open-minded about the real threat climate change poses to human and national security.  And then use this as a strong argument for all major emitters to come to the negotiating table with more ambition.

John L Smith - Head, Climate Change Team

Article source: FCO Climate change team blog

Image source: climatesafety