Multiple Futures Project - Navigating Towards 2030

  The following is an excerpt from Multiple Futures Project (MFP) Findings and Recommendations:

The Multiple  Futures  tell  the  story  of  four  plausible worlds  in  2030, and  are  constructed  to  reflect  their  underlying  logic  and  reasoning.  None of these is what the future actually will be, but each provides a common  ground  for  structured  dialogue  on  the  risks  and vulnerabilities  that  will  potentially  endanger  Alliance  populations, territorial integrity, values and ideas. 

The  first  future  is  called Dark  Side  of  Exclusivity,  and  describes  how globalization, climate change and resource scarcity significantly affect the  capacity  of  states  outside  the  globalized  world  to  function effectively and meet the needs of their populations. Weak and failed states are sources of instability, and the states of the globalized world are faced with strategic choices on how to react. 

The second future, called Deceptive Stability, refers to a world where advanced nations are preoccupied with  societal  change and how  to manage the coming demographic shift as native populations age and young migrants  fill  the  void.   States  in  this world of  relative benign stability are preoccupied.  They focus inward on social cohesion, legal and  illegal migration,  and  transnational  issues  related  to  diasporas.  This leaves them ill-prepared to deal with geopolitical risk. 

Clash of Modernities, the third future, sketches a world where a strong belief  in  rationalism,  coupled  with  ingenuity  and  technological innovation,  fuels  and  promotes  horizontal  connections  between advanced  networked  societies  across  the  globe.  This  network  is challenged  from  the  outside  by  authoritarian  regimes  of  the hinterlands,  and  from within  by  a  precarious  balance  between  civil liberties and oversight by the state. 

The  fourth  future  is  called  New  Power  Politics,  in  which  growing absolute wealth, including the widespread proliferation of WMD, has
increased the number of major powers, between whom there  is now a  tenuous  balance.  Globalization  through  trade  integration  and
internationally  agreed  standards  is  undermined  as  these  powers compete  for  and  impede global  access  to  resources  and  spheres of
influence.

Each  of  the  futures  provides  a  backdrop  for  conceptual  analysis.  Together  they present  a  canvas on which  to  evaluate  risks,  threats,
potential  strategic  surprises,  implications  and,  of  course, opportunities.  The  study  has  yielded  a  rich  set  of  Risk  Conditions, ranging  from  ‘failed  states’  and  ‘disruption  of  access  to  critical resources,’  to  ‘increasing  ethnic  tension’  and  the  ‘challenge  of conflicting  values  and  world  views.’  When  linked  with  the  six potential  Sources  of  Threat  identified  in  the  MFP,  the  resulting Threatening Actions  or  Events  yield  33  Security  Implications  and  26 Military Implications.

All Multiple Futures Project documents can be found here.