Monitoring disaster displacement in the context of climate change

Climate change is already increasing the frequency and  intensity of natural hazards, and the numbers of natural disasters reported and people affected are rising. Although it is clear that natural disasters are one of the principal causes of forced displacement, data on disaster-related displacement has not been consistently collected and analysed. The lack of reliable baseline data on disaster-related forced displacement has prevented adequate evaluation of the scale of the phenomenon and the patterns of displacement. It also makes it difficult to extrapolate potential human mobility based on existing climate change models or scenarios, or to develop realistic assessments to be taken into account in climate
change adaptation policy formation.

This study looks at natural disasters and forced displacement in the context of climate change. It has two aims: firstly, to provide an estimate of forced displacement related to disasters in 2008, specifically climate-related disasters; and secondly, to propose a methodology that could be applied to monitor disaster-related displacement on an ongoing basis. The study uses existing data sets on the impacts of natural disasters in 2008, crossreferences various sources, and individually investigates a number of events to estimate the numbers of persons displaced by disasters in 2008.

The findings show that at least 36 million people were displaced by sudden-onset natural disasters in 2008. Of those, over 20 million were displaced by sudden-onset climate-related disasters. As a reference, the total population of people living in forced displacement due to conflict, including IDPs and refugees, was 42 million in 2008, with 4.6 million having been newly internally displaced during the year. It is likely that many more are displaced due to the other climate change-related drivers, including slow-onset disasters, such as drought and sea level rise; however the study does not present an estimate of their number.

The methodology proposed in this study could be applied with relatively limited additional resources to monitor disaster-related displacement on an ongoing basis. Monitoring of disaster-related displacement could be significantly enhanced through additional steps to collect data on the duration of displacement, returns, local integration and relocation and the needs of displaced populations.

The full report can be downloaded here.