Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

A report published on the 30th September by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) estimates that 25 million more children will be malnourished by 2050 due to the effects of climate change. The report predicts that climate change will lead to price increases for the most important agricultural crops: rice, wheat, maize and soybeans. Wheat prices are projected to increase globally by 170 - 191% whilst rice prices may increase by 113 - 121%.

The study: Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation, uses the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report's A2 scenario with a best estimate temperature rise of 3.4 degrees centigrade and a likely range of 2.0 to 5.4 degrees centigrade. However, the report does not account for: the effects of increased variability in weather caused by climate change; the loss of agricultural lands due to rising seas levels; climate change induced increases in pests of diseases; or increased variability in river flows as glaciers melt.

"Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change, because farming is so water-dependent. Small-scale farmers in developing countries will suffer the most" not Mark Rosegrant, director of IFPRI's Environment and Production Technology Division and report co-author. Gerald Nelson, IFPRI senior research fellow and report lead author suggested, "This outcome could be averted with seven billion U.S. dollars per year of additional investments in agricultural productivity to help farmers to adapt to the effects of climate change. Investments are needed in agricultural research, improved irrigation, and rural roads to increase market access for poor farmers. Access to safe drinking water and education for girls is also essential."

The full report can be downloaded here.