Global militarisation

The current priority of the dominant security actors is maintaining international security through the vigorous use of military force combined with the development of both nuclear and conventional weapons systems. Post-Cold War nuclear developments involve the modernisation and proliferation of nuclear systems, with an increasing risk of limited nuclear-weapons use in warfare – breaking a threshold that has held for sixty years and seriously undermining multilateral attempts at disarmament. These dangerous trends will be exacerbated by developments in national missile defence, chemical and biological weapons and a race towards the weaponisation of space.

Al-Qaida: the Yemen factor

Paul Rogers | open Democracy | January 2010

Issue:Global militarisation

Tagss:Conflict, Yemen

Expert: Most of the focus of the United States war on al-Qaida since 9/11 has been on Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq; relatively little attention has been given to the two states on either side of the Gulf of Aden - Yemen and Somalia. Any surplus resources away from the middle east and southwest Asia have tended to be devoted to Algeria and Mali as potential sites for al-Qaida activity.

Yet, Paul Rogers points out that with Umar Farouk Abdulmuttalab's attempt on 25 December 2009 to destroy a Northwest Airlines flight as it approached Detroit and his connections with Yemen, al-Qaida may simultaneously be in decline in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but growing in the Gulf of Aden.

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Iraq: the path of war

Paul Rogers | open Democracy | December 2009

Issues:Competition over resources, Global militarisation

Tagss:global security, globalisation, Iraq

Most analysts agree that the security situation across Iraq as a whole has improved in 2008-09. The lower incidence of violence owes something to the consolidated sectarian geography of Baghdad and its environs as a result of the ferocious conflict of the mid-2000s. In any event the decline is relative rather than absolute, for Iraq continues to be a perilous place for many of its citizens.

In conjunction with the opening of the official inquiry in Britain into the circumstances of the then prime minister Tony Blair’s decision to join the United States-led military campaign against Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003, the persistent violence in Iraq reopens the question of the impulse of the war and whether other decisions with better outcomes could have been taken.

 

Originally published in openDemocracy.

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Global Security after the War on Terror

Paul Rogers | Oxford Research Group | November 2009

Issues:Climate change, Global militarisation, Marginalisation

This paper examines the context of the decision to go to war after 9/11 and the anticipated results. It goes on to analyse the actual  consequences and seeks to explain why they have been so radically different to original expectations by the United States and its closest coalition partners such as the UK. The paper then updates the analysis of the major global challenges that Oxford Research Group has previously discussed and the need for a new paradigm focused on sustainable security. It concludes by assessing how the experience of the eight years that have followed the 9/11 atrocities might make a change of paradigm more likely.

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Multiple Futures Project - Navigating Towards 2030

Issues:Competition over resources, Global militarisation, Marginalisation

In March 2008, the Supreme Allied Commander Transformation called for NATO to consider "that different views of future worlds will strengthen our endeavor to develop a more rigorous and holistic appreciation for future security challenges and implications for the Alliance."

The result, a Multiple Futures Project (MFP), acknowledges that in a rapidly changing global security environment, the landscape we know may be very different in 2030. It puts forward four plausible worlds upon which structured dialogue on  risks and vulnerabilities can occur: Dark Side of Exclusivity, Deceptive Stability, Clash of Modernites, and New Power Politics.

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India's 21st-century war

Paul Rogers | Open Democracy | November 2009

Issues:Climate change, Global militarisation, Marginalisation

Tagss:India, Maoists, Naxalite insurgency

In an age of climate change and deepening inequality, the spreading Naxalite insurgency in India - not al-Qaida - may show the world its future.

This article was originally posted on openDemocracy.

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